Daily-scored odds of Senate passage before the August recess. Weighted model: floor time (25%), merged text (15%), ethics resolution (25%), Democratic vote count (25%), calendar runway (10%). Live Polymarket price shown for reference — that market resolves on full-year 2026 passage, a looser bar than this tracker's pre-recess scope, so expect it to run higher.
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Polymarket (Yes, 2026)
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